Winners, Whiners and Losers

(Read on, or view here: https://youtu.be/yhNHn1mXX38 )

Everything’s up for grabs. The British economy, our relations with Europe, and, in coming days, the biggest litmus test yet of the Labour government. Thursday’s town hall polls and by-election will likely set the tone for the next four years.

It’s a tapestry of interwoven uncertainty, both at home and abroad. And the stakes, wherever you look, could hardly be higher.

In theory, punters across great swathes of the country will be deciding who’ll do the best job in their town halls. And, in Runcorn, who’ll stand up for them best in parliament.

But the reality is voters’ judgement in local contests tends to be far more sharply defined by what they make of the national parties.

And this is where it gets complicated. Until the twinkling of an eye ago it was a clear race between Labour and Tories, with the Lib Dems as runners up.

But now there’s Nigel Farage and his insurgent Reform Party. These guys are contesting almost all the seats, and survey after survey suggest they’re going to win hundreds of them.

They could even snatch the by-election in Runcorn, which is only being held because the previous Labour MP had to stand down for bashing someone up. Not a good look.

If that did go Farage’s way there’d be serious wobbles in Number Ten.

But it’s the Tory leader Kemi Badenoch who’s most at risk. Her performance to date hasn’t played well with her MPs, and a disastrous night could be the beginning of the end for her.

Given that last time Thursday’s seats were contested the Conservative party was on a high, it’s taken as read they’ll lose most of them. Hence ongoing murmurings about pacts with Farage’s lot.

Always officially denied, natch. But as the old hacks’ saying goes: ‘Nothing is ever true in politics, until it’s officially denied.’

Of course Reform’s had an uphill struggle to root out the likes of those who former Tory PM David Cameron once memorably wrote off as: ‘Mad, swivel-eyed loons.’

And it’s not over yet. One candidate called the late Queen ‘a scrounger’, another described Jimmy Savile as a ‘working-class hero’ and a third maintained her golliwog toy was ‘cute’. Oh dear.

But with surveys suggesting that Farage will win more seats at the general election than either Labour or the Tories, he’s playing the affable, blokey card for all it’s worth.

And, given that Starmer’s widely seen as blessed with the charisma of a plate of mashed potatoes, and Badenoch’s better at annoying people than pleasing them, he’s on a roll.

The counter argument is that no one’s thinking all that much about tactical voting yet. But, come the big night, probably sometime in 2029, there may be cross-party efforts to burst his bubble.

But the very mention of so far ahead is a reminder of how dated is the axiom attributed to one-time Labour PM Harold Wilson, that a week is a long time in politics.

These days, largely thanks to the election of Donald Trump, ten minutes can feel like half a lifetime. What he and his ill-starred band of brothers will try and do next is anyone’s guess.

As the ancient Turkish saying goes: ‘When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn’t become a king. The palace becomes a circus.’

No denying that on one level it’s a compelling spectator sport. But, awkwardly, we Brits are as much participants as the rest of the world.

And right now an awful lot’s riding on our Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ mission to shield us from the king/clown’s efforts at turning the world trade order upside down.

Whatever she achieves will come too late to have much bearing on the outcome of this week’s round of elections, but could well make all the difference come the big one.

That’s because her pitch to the punters was, is and will continue to be economic growth, which translates into a promise to put more money in everyone’s pockets.

Unfortunately, the course that Trump’s tottering along can only lead to taking even more money out of everyone’s pockets.

Or, as the International Monetary Fund put it last week, his mooted import taxes have unleashed a ‘major negative shock’ into the world economy.

A gentle way of putting it, by their standards. Normally, if they think a politician’s a fruitcake, they say so.

Some fear they’re a little bit cowed by Trump’s mutterings about pulling the rug from under organisations like theirs, that underpin and in large measure police the way economies are run.

Could this be a chilling echo of what happened to the League of Nations, set up after World War One to make sure nothing of the kind ever happened again?

It held up tolerably well until it fell apart in the face of Hitler and likeminded monsters. Lack of backing, notably from the USA or Russia, didn’t help.

Another ghastly echo? The shivers sent down spines by the burgeoning White House/Kremlin axis extend way beyond Ukraine.

Given the need not to imperil our delicate trade talks by poking the American bear, Keir Starmer is still being polite about Trump’s blatantly one-sided campaign to end Putin’s war.

But others are more than happy to tell the story as it is. Take this, from the Defence and Security Editor of the staunchly Conservative Daily Telegraph:

‘Surrender, capitulation, betrayal, appeasement, abandonment … better describe the egregious apology of a peace deal that the Trump administration is currently hawking around Europe.’

Still, there are hopeful signs here and there. The Donald’s learning the hard way that, omnipotent though he thinks he is, it’s money that’s in charge really, not him.

Which is why his threat to fire the guy running America’s central bank for not doing his bidding didn’t go to plan.

When the stock market came back with a threat to hit everyone in the pocket – guess who backed off. Clue – it wasn’t the banker.

There are also signs that the yes men in his tackily gilded palace are starting to say no to one another, and even to him.

Elon Musk is more or less out, while the Defence Secretary’s also on thin ice after being careless with government secrets. Again.

Rats deserting sinking ship? Or maybe even sinking ships deserting rat?

But after the poor little creatures got unfairly blamed for spreading the Black Death, maybe it’s time for rehabilitation.

Cue vet’s nurse Steph Toogood from Somerset, who started keeping them as pets when her father died nine years ago and found it a ‘huge comfort’.

Also, as time went on, a nice little earner.

First, she dips their paws in strictly non-toxic water-based paint, then, having trained them to follow her hand, she gets them to walk across blank canvasses. Only if they want to, mind.

Oddly enough, in their abstract sort of way, the artworks are rather appealing. Enough so to sell online for up to thirty-five pounds each.

In addition, she posts pix of them online, because they: ‘Help to capture how cute rats really are … very different to their wild counterpart.’

Nice to know not all rats are rats. Naming no names.