Westminster Wobbles

(Read on, or view here: https://youtu.be/WQ1V4rRsnhI)

Andy Burnham’s win in the Makerfield by-election, historic by any standards, means all bets are off. Keir Starmer still seems determined not to go down without a fight. But his options are narrowing by the day.

‘In office but not in power.’ That barb, hurled at a one-time Tory Prime Minister in his Chancellor’s oft-quoted resignation speech is as relevant today as it was back then.

Even Starmer’s closest allies accept that he’s living not so much on borrowed as stolen time. Not that he’s done anything desperately bad, just that he simply hasn’t connected.

Not only with the British public, incidentally, but also with his own MPs.

One observed sadly a few days ago that even after Labour’s disastrous results in the local elections back in May he still didn’t get around to actually addressing his own backbenchers.

Of course he maintains that after the party’s huge win at the last general election he’s fully entitled to carry on running the country until the next one.

But with Labour slumping in the polls and his own personal popularity through the floor the boast sounds hollow, to say the least.

And all it would take would be the mass resignation of his top team and the game would be up. When ex PM Boris Johnson fell prey to just that he ruefully conceded: ‘When the herd moves, it moves.’

No question Starmer’s hitherto Defence Secretary giving up on him a week or so back, and taking one or two others with him, was a warning shot.

The shape of things to come? We await developments.

As to exactly what shape those developments might take, there are as many opinions as there are commentators. More than that, as it happens, as there’ve been plenty of either/ors on offer.

In fairness, this is not to be wondered at. As even the leading actors in the unfolding melodrama haven’t much of a clue what parts they’re supposed to be playing.

At one end of the spectrum, Starmer could yet say ok you win, I’m outa here. Though it’s unlikely he could even manage that with as much dramatic flair.

More likely it’d be: ‘In the circumstances, for the good of the nation, I have decided that now might be the moment for a reconsideration of my position.’

Not exactly exit stage left, pursued by bear, but that’s what it’d boil down to.

In the albeit still unlikely event of that happening Burnham could get the keys to Number Ten within weeks, especially if he can cut a deal with other possible contenders.

Less unlikely are options ranging from Starmer’s reluctant agreement to step away in his own good time, probably after Labour’s autumn conference, through to a leadership challenge foist on him by Burnham.

The drawback to the in-my-own-good-time bet is the certainty that from his announcement onwards he’d be a dead man walking. Same as Tony Blair when he made that promise to Gordon Brown.

But, alternatively, the going-down-fighting approach would leave Labour ripping itself to shreds for months.

This’d be the bloodiest of blood sports. A rubbish look, hardly destined to enhance Labour’s chances of beating Nigel Farage when the general election does finally heave into view.

And, talking of Farage, he’s been busy since the Makerfield result was declared insisting his so-called plucky plumber’s defeat was only to be expected in the circs.

To a degree he’s got a point there. It’s no great surprise Burnham beat him to it, with his right flank flummoxed by the far-right Restore Britain mob.

But only to a degree, mind, as Burnham’s vote share was way higher than that of his right-wing rivals put together.

Bit of a comforting thought, that, given the mounting tide of evidence that Restore’s extreme agenda is aided and abetted by the Russians.

No question their central policy platform, mass deportation of immigrants who’re here perfectly legally, is as divisive as it is disturbing. Just another form of hybrid warfare being waged by the Kremlin.

An ongoing and pernicious conflict, though right now Farage is hoping he can at least seize the mayoralty of Manchester, up for grabs thanks to Burnham’s departure.

But for all his poo-pooing of the Makerfield result he knows it’s knocked a serious dent in his shinily polished armour.

Face it, much of that neck of the woods is stuffed full of his natural backers.

It’s an area ravaged by Margaret Thatcher’s policy of closing down so many of Britain’s old industries. Communities were torn to bits and the anger was palpable.

Problem being it all happened a long time back, and she herself passed away over a decade ago.

Nonetheless, there’s plenty of deprivation lingering on, stoking the anger. And it’s always handy to have someone to blame.

Step forward foreigners. Be they European, Farage’s old bête noire in his Brexit crusade, and more recently those who replaced them when he managed to drive them away.

Stirring up resentment in already disillusioned areas has done wonders for Reform’s standing, witness how well they did in the north-east in those local elections.

And, relatively small though Restore’s vote share turned out to be, it was pretty impressive when you consider it came practically from a standing start.

This, very likely, because these guys really don’t pull their punches in the immigration imbroglio.

Not content with just wanting to slash current numbers of incomers, they also actually do want to turn the clock back to the 1950s, slinging out all those folk invited in to help rebuild post-war Britain.

This is not some wafty leftie rant. It’s all there in their campaign literature and slogans.

And while they may well be egged on from the east, meaning Moscow, they’re also getting a helping hand from the west, in the form of the Yankee tech giant Elon Musk.

He’s been busy of late promoting their agenda via his X site. Echoing and amplifying all manner of hate speech and general nastiness.

Arguably the worst bit of all is that properly regulated material, in newspapers, radio and telly, is no longer calling the shots.

Outlets staffed by professional journalists are scornfully written off as ‘legacy media’ – as most of the ‘news’ that’s actually read comes from keyboard warriors. Who can make it all up as they go along.

However, could be that Burnham will be able to cut through all that nonsense.

In his victory speech he promised to take Britain: ‘Away from the path that takes us towards the divided politics of the United States’, towards something we have lost: ‘Hope for the future.’

In short, he was putting out the hope not hate message. As well as giving Donald Trump the finger, something Starmer’s never dared do.

Underlying it all, again in his victory speech, was the promise of change.

Has to be said that politicians of all stripes are always floating that idea around. Just a question of how convincingly they can articulate it, and exactly how big a change they have in mind.

Happens that the good people of Makerfield had their chance to hit the jackpot there, but flunked it.

After all, they could have but didn’t vote for Count Binface of the Count Binface Party. Or indeed Howling Laud Hope of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party.

Oh well, there’s always a next time.