Hello and Goodbye?

(Read on, or view here: https://youtu.be/8mKmxaiF7Pw)

If he thinks he’s in trouble now, the Prime Minister doesn’t know the meaning of the word. With the by-election in Makerfield just days away and the polls telling us Andy Burnham will win it, it looks like Starmer’s toast.

The twin resignations of his Defence Secretary and Minister, albeit gobsmacking, were little more than an warm-up act. As our Political Correspondent Peter Spencer reports, the only question left is how soon we’ll see the removal vans in Downing Street.

You can’t say we don’t live in interesting times.

In a democracy everyone’s supposed to have their say, but because who gets the keys to Number Ten is down to those folk oop north it’ll be roughly one in a thousand of us who’ll be making the choice.

Of course nothing’s certain. Nigel Farage’s plucky plumber could yet scrape home. Or, assuming he doesn’t, Burnham might yet not topple Starmer off his perch.

But the overwhelming balance of probability is that by close of play this coming Thursday Greater Manchester will be casting around for a new mayor, and Starmer will be fighting for his political life.

The fragility of his position was laid bare by the seismic events on Thursday, when his previously ultra loyal Defence Secretary gave up on him, taking others in his train.

Not up there with the mass cabinet resignations that finally did for Boris Johnson, but it wasn’t that far short.

And the sheer shock on the faces of TV commentators trying to make sense of it was reminiscent of the day news of one-time Tory PM John Major’s extramarital affair landed.

‘Blimey! Didn’t see that coming.’ It was written over everyone’s face. Then, as now.

At the same time, the backdrop to those ructions at the Ministry of Defence highlight a near-impossible circle to square for whoever’s trying to run the country.

Any PM’s top priorities have to be keeping the nation safe, and balancing its books.

But the military top brass are hankering for more than twice what the number crunchers in Number Eleven reckon we can afford.

The only way round that is to borrow more money, and so steer the economy into perilous waters, or cut back in other areas and get those losing out screaming betrayal.

Remember the fuss about the winter fuel allowance for most pensioners? Nothing compared to forthcoming funding fights to finance our fighting forces.

But there’s no denying the problem’s real. When the Ruskies stopped being beastly, with nice people like Gorbachev in the Kremlin, the peace dividend diverted dosh away from the military.

Now that Putin seems to be getting nastier by the day all that money needs to be clawed back. As to where from, god knows.

And it’s not like we can fall back, at least for the time being, on our stateside chums. With Donald Trump about as good a best friend as an XL Bully with mental health issues we’re on our tod.

Then there are the other things he’s passing our way. Like a juddering halt to the economic uptick we’d been enjoying until his Middle East muddle strangled the Strait of Hormuz.

Even if the latest peace talks do finally bear fruit the damage is already done.

On top of that there’s the hate-speak he and his frenemies have been exporting via social media, thus fanning the flames of racist rioting we’ve endured in Southampton and Belfast in recent days.

Yes, in both cases questions of ethnicity arose in the initial acts of violence, but in both cases also the victims’ families pleaded with everyone not to let what had happened trigger divisive responses.

Not that these poor people’s feelings counted for anything in the minds of the monsters who took to the streets and attacked anyone within range. In Northern Ireland targeting the homes of minorities.

Of course if you scratch an awful lot of young men you’ll find that atavistic streak. Nothing changes there.

These days skin colour or dress code are a handy handle, but anything will do, really. Back in the 1960s mods and rockers staged pitched battles because they weren’t keen on one another’s music.

And King Henry the fifth, hero of Agincourt, only really set out on that mission because he enjoyed fighting.

Took part in his first battle when he was only sixteen, and carried on slashing and stabbing people even when he’d got shot in the head with a arrow. There’s dedication.

While he doubtless egged his chaps on with promises of glory, there’s an ugly echo to be found in sentiments expressed by the American Vice-President, no less. And Elon Musk.

But JD Vance and the newly minted trillionaire don’t even need speeches, what with the likes of X spreading the word.

Brilliantly contoured as the site is to act as an amplifier and echo chamber for people’s all too often vicious prejudices, all these guys have to do is press a few buttons.

The irony being their crazy ideas about chucking out all immigrants, regardless of legal entitlement to be here and essential roles in the jobs market, will ultimately cancel themselves out.

That’s because the only grouping that goes along with the mass deportation idea is the far-right Restore Britain party.

Thanks largely to social media input, the polls suggest they’ll dig a deep enough hole in Reform’s support to get Burnham over the line. Exactly the reverse of these guys’ desired outcome.

But assuming the so-called King of the North does become the Duke of Downing Street, how he’ll handle our once and one day hopefully future allies across the Atlantic is an open question.

Not like he won’t have to squeeze all that into the kaleidoscope of conflicting pressures on just about every other front cooking his brains.

His huge advantage over Starmer is that he talks human. Same as Farage, an asset which did so much to ensure he got his way over Brexit, and continues to keep him out front in the polls.

Difference being not looking and sounding like Mr Potato Head is not enough when it comes to running the country. Andy will need a few ideas up his sleeve, though they won’t have to be unaffordable.

Take Starmer’s upcoming crackdown on the pernicious effects of too much of the wrong sort of phone-scrolling by kids. Overwhelming public support there, and won’t cost a brass farthing.

So why didn’t he think of it before? Talk about too little, too late. His problem, arguably, all along.

But clever little tricks can sometimes make a big difference. Even if they do look, at first glance, rather odd.

After all, it’s not every day you see donkeys and horses wearing, er, red and white socks.

They live at the Redwings Horse Sanctuary in Norfolk, and those with leg injuries are kitted out with the garment because the special fabric protects the damaged areas and helps them heal.

All thanks to some smart and kindly person at the Arsenal Football Club, who spotted masses of surplus stocks and hit upon the idea.

As a result the animals have to put up with fewer visits from the vet. Besides, staff often pop in bananas and ginger biscuits to keep them even happier.

On top of that, you could even argue they look pretty cool, actually.