A Truly Rubbish Party

(Read on, or view here: https://youtu.be/Qct6LLQrzRY )

It must have struck the Prime Minister as the sort of birthday when you hate all the presents, half your mates have got the measles and the picnic in the park is rained off anyway. Exactly one year on from an historic win, this government’s looking like a loser. But appearances can be deceptive.

Think Plato’s cave, the story of people who’ve never managed to get out into the daylight, and so are convinced that the shadows on the walls are all there is to life. Natural enough, but wrong.

Last week saw Keir Starmer caught up in a calamitous cockup. A flagship policy ripped to shreds, a massive headache for the Treasury and a Chancellor reduced to tears on telly.

Little wonder there’ve been dark murmurings within the Labour party that maybe it’s time to forage around for a new leader.

Certainly the pitiful sight of Rachel Reeves weeping at Prime Minister’s Questions left the impression that she was for the chop.

Given that she’s generally thought of in the money markets as Mrs Sensible it’s little wonder that they immediately went loopy, potentially costing the nation a fortune.

But here again, all was not as it seemed. When Starmer, admittedly rather belatedly, set the record straight, the twangy braces brigade settled down again and didn’t cost the nation a fortune.

And here’s the wider lesson, or, rather, here are two wider lessons.

One, whatever the right-wing newspapers might have us believe, this government isn’t actually about to implode.

But two, Sir Keir’s about as good at handling the optics of power as a three-year-old trying to drive a tractor.

The point being that he doesn’t really get politics. Bear in mind he’s a lawyer by trade and disposition, and hasn’t been in the Westminster washing machine all that long.

Upshot being his focus is on how things are, rather than necessarily how they look.

This has worked greatly to his advantage on the world stage, as he’s tidied relations with the European Union, and avoided pulling the pin on the orange hand grenade in the White House.

But he’s still a bit stumped on the smoke and mirrors needed to tell a convincing story to the punters about how he’s trying to help them.

Clearly, he’s not too hot either on rallying his own troops. Or even just talking to them. Hence, at least in part, the resentment that swelled the rebellion last week over welfare reforms.

Of course he couldn’t win. If he’d faced the rage down to the bitter end the Labour rebels would have chucked his bill out of the window.

As it is, what parliament finally voted through was a shambolic shell, which basically sent the idea back to the drawing board. And left instead a bill of five billion pounds for Ms Reeves to pick up.

Naturally the Tories have been crowing about how he caved, even though they can perfectly well see he had no choice, any more than they would have done.

More importantly, however, those Labour MPs who forced him into the screeching U-turn are feeling empowered. More so even than after the rethink on winter fuel payments for oldies.

The danger here is that a governing party that’s looking fragmented loses the nation’s trust. Think of the Tories, torn apart over Europe ever since John Major took over from Margaret Thatcher.

It was gloriously memorable how the so-called Grey Man once referred to the tinpot would-be dictators who were so on a mission to get Britain out as ‘bastards’.

But it also helped pave the way for Tony Blair’s overwhelming win back in 1997. This in spite of the fact that Major had done a pretty good job at getting the economy onto an even keel.

And here another problem besetting Keir Starmer heaves into view.

Because the nation in the nineties was flush with cash, New Labour was able to hugely increase spending on health and education. Tick whopping tick there.

But then came the 2008 financial crash that started in Wall Street and spread out to the rest of the world, costing the British exchequer little short of a horrifying hundred-and-forty billion pounds.

Ok, most of that was later recouped, but not before the incoming Conservative Chancellor had set in train a savage austerity programme that tore the heart out of most of our public services.

Then came the Covid crisis, in which then Chancellor Rishi Sunak stepped up to the plate with his furlough scheme that protected vast numbers of people from destitution.

Little wonder that back then he got the nickname Dishy Rishi. But, vital though the measure was, it did set the nation back another hundred-and-forty billion.

There’s also the small matter of Russia’s savage invasion of Ukraine, which led to a serious spike in energy costs. And, as Putin’s plans become ever clearer, is going to cost us loads more in defence.

All of which has meant that Sir Keir’s picked up something closer to the war-ravaged economy facing Labour Prime Minister Clement Attlee in 1945 than Blair’s brimming coffers.

Starmer’s done his best to get that point across, but, such are his communication skills, or lack of them, that all he’s really managed to do is make A.A. Milne’s Eeyore look cheery.

But he and Reeves have also set in train, via a big tax hike last year and a rejigging of the borrowing rules, longer term plans to seriously boost spending on housing, hospitals and infrastructure.

And while we may never find out what she was really crying about in the Commons last week, she’ll have everything to crow about if the new projects show themselves in time for the next election.

The same might apply if the latest monumentally ambitious plans to revamp the health service, making it far more patient-friendly than it’s ever been, are actually seen to make a difference.

In the meantime, Starmer may do well to give his deputy, Angela Rayner, more rein, excuse pun. If, for no other reason, because she’s got more appeal than him both to the party and to wavering voters.

Given that polls suggest Nigel Farage’s Reform outfit’s on course to come out on top at the next election, a person-of-the-people figure like her may be just the one to tip the scales.

So Starmer’s escape from the political doldrums does remain a runner. Stranger things have happened.

Consider the tale of Inky the Octopus, told by the animal kingdom’s supreme overlord and advocate David Attenborough.

It seems that one night at the National Aquarium of New Zealand a lid on the creature’s tank was accidentally left slightly open. And he seized the moment.

Being spineless may not be a good look for humans, but was great for this bone-free brainbox, as it meant he could slither through the tiny gap and be on his way.

Having made it to the floor he hunted and hunted until he found a narrow drainpipe. Only fifteen centimetres wide, but leading straight out to the bay and the open ocean.

And if a little leggity beastie like him can pull off a great escape like that, then surely it shouldn’t be beyond the wit of a Prime Minister. Or should it? We’ll see.